How Well Do Elo-Based Ratings Predict Professional Tennis Matches?

This paper examines the efficiency of five different measures for forecasting men’s and women’s professional tennis matches. We use data derived from each match performed at the 2018 and 2019 Wimbledon tennis championships, the 2019 French Open, the 2019 US Open, and the 2020 Australian Open. We look at the betting odds, the official tennis rankings, the standard Elo rankings, surface-specific Elo scores, and weighted composites of these scores, including and excluding the betting odds. The efficiency indicators used are prediction accuracy, calibration, model discrimination, Brier rating, and expected return. We find that the betting odds carry out comparatively effectively across these tournaments, while normal Elo (especially for women’s tennis) and floor-adjusted Elo (especially for men’s tennis) additionally perform well on a range of indicators. For all however the exhausting-courtroom surfaces, a forecasting mannequin which contains the betting odds tends additionally to perform nicely on some indicators. We discover that the official rating system proved to be a comparatively poor measure of possible performance compared to betting odds and Elo-associated methods. Our results add weight to the case for a wider use of Elo-based mostly approaches within sports forecasting, as well as arguably within the player rankings methodologies.

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